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USDJPY
Just as we suspected, USDJPY’s weakened support around 86.00 was insufficient to fend off a further push from the bears, and this morning the pair has dipped to fresh 2010 lows of 85.32. For the time being, the lower edge of a 5-week downtrend channel (around 85.40-5) is stalling the sell-off from accelerating further, but the fidelity of that trendline is certainly under threat from a new, steeper 1-week downtrend channel.
Should 5-week trendline support give way and trigger a collapse through 85.32, the next major level is the November 2009 low of 84.83 –a locus that holds double significance at the moment because it also coincides with the lower edge of the 1-week downtrend channel. Below 84.83 we would be in waters uncharted since 1995, so hold onto your hats!
Until that stage, rallies are likely to face strong resistance towards 85.98 (former support), 86.10 (upper edge of the 1-week downtrend) and 86.89 (Monday’s high). In the unlikely event the bulls can push above there, ample selling interest should precipitate around 87.75 (back side of former short-term uptrend) with 88.00 also just behind.
USDJPY
Just as we suspected, USDJPY’s weakened support around 86.00 was insufficient to fend off a further push from the bears, and this morning the pair has dipped to fresh 2010 lows of 85.32. For the time being, the lower edge of a 5-week downtrend channel (around 85.40-5) is stalling the sell-off from accelerating further, but the fidelity of that trendline is certainly under threat from a new, steeper 1-week downtrend channel.
Should 5-week trendline support give way and trigger a collapse through 85.32, the next major level is the November 2009 low of 84.83 –a locus that holds double significance at the moment because it also coincides with the lower edge of the 1-week downtrend channel. Below 84.83 we would be in waters uncharted since 1995, so hold onto your hats!
Until that stage, rallies are likely to face strong resistance towards 85.98 (former support), 86.10 (upper edge of the 1-week downtrend) and 86.89 (Monday’s high). In the unlikely event the bulls can push above there, ample selling interest should precipitate around 87.75 (back side of former short-term uptrend) with 88.00 also just behind.
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EURUSD
Not only has the latest surge to highs of 1.3262 brought us within 30 pips of our symmetrical triangle target 1.3290, but the push through 1.3185 has also activated a bullish flag pattern on the hourly chart. Conveniently, this second pattern has allowed many who missed the original triangle break-out (back down at 1.2950) to get in on the long trade, and conveniently the target for this flag is virtually the same as the triangle’s, at 1.3300.
With the uptrend channel looking extremely robust and the 13 May high of 1.3254 already conquered, the 1.3262 peak from yesterday is the only resistance level (and a mere formality) eyed ahead of 1.3300. Beyond there we see further pockets of supply dotted at 1.3362 (2 May high), 1.3415 (26 Apr high) and 1.3561 (200-day moving average).
Support is expected to lie below us around 1.3185 (flag breakout level), yesterday’s low 1.3147, then the 5-week uptrend channel support at 1.3095.
EURUSD
Not only has the latest surge to highs of 1.3262 brought us within 30 pips of our symmetrical triangle target 1.3290, but the push through 1.3185 has also activated a bullish flag pattern on the hourly chart. Conveniently, this second pattern has allowed many who missed the original triangle break-out (back down at 1.2950) to get in on the long trade, and conveniently the target for this flag is virtually the same as the triangle’s, at 1.3300.
With the uptrend channel looking extremely robust and the 13 May high of 1.3254 already conquered, the 1.3262 peak from yesterday is the only resistance level (and a mere formality) eyed ahead of 1.3300. Beyond there we see further pockets of supply dotted at 1.3362 (2 May high), 1.3415 (26 Apr high) and 1.3561 (200-day moving average).
Support is expected to lie below us around 1.3185 (flag breakout level), yesterday’s low 1.3147, then the 5-week uptrend channel support at 1.3095.
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USDCHF
What a choppy mess! Although USDCHF may have looked somewhat directionless and rangebound in the past few days, the overwhelming message from the rest of the currency space appears to be “sell the dollar”, so this may be a pair worth watching for a downside break before it actually takes place.
The downside level to watch will be yesterday’s low 1.0348, which has only weak former downtrend support below it at 1.0305. Below there we start looking back to levels not seen since the beginning of the year; namely the 19 Jan low 1.0229 and the 11 Jan low 1.0131.
Selling interest is expected to materialize around 1.0415 (today’s high) and then again at yesterday’s peak of 1.0476.
USDCHF
What a choppy mess! Although USDCHF may have looked somewhat directionless and rangebound in the past few days, the overwhelming message from the rest of the currency space appears to be “sell the dollar”, so this may be a pair worth watching for a downside break before it actually takes place.
The downside level to watch will be yesterday’s low 1.0348, which has only weak former downtrend support below it at 1.0305. Below there we start looking back to levels not seen since the beginning of the year; namely the 19 Jan low 1.0229 and the 11 Jan low 1.0131.
Selling interest is expected to materialize around 1.0415 (today’s high) and then again at yesterday’s peak of 1.0476.
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GBPUSD
Like a hot knife through butter, GBPUSD is slicing through topside resistance levels like they’re not even there; the latest victim being the 17 Feb high 1.5816 which gave way without so much as a whimper. We have also clambered above 1.5866 (61.8% fibonacci retracement of the sell off from 1.6878 to 1.4229), and that should now act as a decent pivot level to buy off.
The only resistance level worth paying attention to in the near term is the hugely significant 1.6000 barrier where option-related interest may block the route higher on the first few attempts; and in addition further rallies will have a decent pocket of supply to overcome around the top edge of the current 2-month uptrend (currently 1.6040)
Nevertheless, to say GBP has a bid tone would be an understatement, so expect buyers to jump in keenly back towards that 1.5866 fibonacci level, then again at 1.5660 (former resistance now turned support) and the 200-day moving average at 1.5537.
GBPUSD
Like a hot knife through butter, GBPUSD is slicing through topside resistance levels like they’re not even there; the latest victim being the 17 Feb high 1.5816 which gave way without so much as a whimper. We have also clambered above 1.5866 (61.8% fibonacci retracement of the sell off from 1.6878 to 1.4229), and that should now act as a decent pivot level to buy off.
The only resistance level worth paying attention to in the near term is the hugely significant 1.6000 barrier where option-related interest may block the route higher on the first few attempts; and in addition further rallies will have a decent pocket of supply to overcome around the top edge of the current 2-month uptrend (currently 1.6040)
Nevertheless, to say GBP has a bid tone would be an understatement, so expect buyers to jump in keenly back towards that 1.5866 fibonacci level, then again at 1.5660 (former resistance now turned support) and the 200-day moving average at 1.5537.
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USDJPY
USDJPY still looks extremely vulnerable after its dip to new 2010 lows of 85.98, and yesterday’s attempted recovery only got as far as 86.89 before the bears got the better of it once more.
85.98 looks set to be challenged again this morning, and should we take a tumble below there then the prospects look grim for anyone still clinging to longs; downtrend channel support at 85.50 is the only demand anticipated ahead of the November 2009 low of 84.83.
Rallies are likely to face strong resistance towards 86.89 (yesterday’s high), and in the unlikely event the bulls can push above there, ample selling interest should precipitate around 87.50-60 (2-month downtrend resistance and back side of former 1-week uptrend) with 88.00 also just behind.
USDJPY
USDJPY still looks extremely vulnerable after its dip to new 2010 lows of 85.98, and yesterday’s attempted recovery only got as far as 86.89 before the bears got the better of it once more.
85.98 looks set to be challenged again this morning, and should we take a tumble below there then the prospects look grim for anyone still clinging to longs; downtrend channel support at 85.50 is the only demand anticipated ahead of the November 2009 low of 84.83.
Rallies are likely to face strong resistance towards 86.89 (yesterday’s high), and in the unlikely event the bulls can push above there, ample selling interest should precipitate around 87.50-60 (2-month downtrend resistance and back side of former 1-week uptrend) with 88.00 also just behind.
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EURUSD
Another burst higher for EURUSD has pushed us to new highs of 1.3195 and it’s so far so good for the bullish triangle pattern we have been engaged in for the past week. We are still sitting tight for an eventual target of 1.3290, but for those who missed the entry point back down around 1.2950 there is now a second opportunity to get long materializing here.
We see a potential bullish flag pattern on the hourly chart which would become activated on a break above 1.3185 and which would look to target 1.3300 –virtually the same as our triangle target. The only resistance levels left before either target are 1.3213 and 1.3254 (14 and 13 May highs respectively); so risk-reward definitely looks favourable for these bullish trades.
Should the bears re-emerge, they will likely find good bidders waiting eagerly to get long around 1.3106 former pivot level, not to mention at the 5-week uptrend channel support at 1.3055.
EURUSD
Another burst higher for EURUSD has pushed us to new highs of 1.3195 and it’s so far so good for the bullish triangle pattern we have been engaged in for the past week. We are still sitting tight for an eventual target of 1.3290, but for those who missed the entry point back down around 1.2950 there is now a second opportunity to get long materializing here.
We see a potential bullish flag pattern on the hourly chart which would become activated on a break above 1.3185 and which would look to target 1.3300 –virtually the same as our triangle target. The only resistance levels left before either target are 1.3213 and 1.3254 (14 and 13 May highs respectively); so risk-reward definitely looks favourable for these bullish trades.
Should the bears re-emerge, they will likely find good bidders waiting eagerly to get long around 1.3106 former pivot level, not to mention at the 5-week uptrend channel support at 1.3055.
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GBPUSD
GBPUSD’s impressive march higher continues, and this morning looks to be within a stone’s throw of threatening the 17 Feb high 1.5816. Dips towards the lower edge of the 2-month uptrend channel have been few and far between which has ensured the market is still clawing to get in on this trade but long positioning is still by no means crowded.
We now see an even steeper 2-week downtrend in play within the 2-month uptrend, and the upper edge of that channel is now eyed at 1.5835; the combination of that and the 1.5816 resistance may be enough to rebut the rally on the first attempt, so we would be alert to dips back towards 1.5650 to go long smalls (at this late stage in the game we are as enthusiastic to go in with a full-sized position).
Good support is anticipated around the 200-day moving average at 1.5539 and 1.5525 pivot, then again at 1.5443 (27 Jul low). Should the move proceed higher through 1.5816 and 1.5835, then all focus will be on a triumphant return to 1.6000.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD’s impressive march higher continues, and this morning looks to be within a stone’s throw of threatening the 17 Feb high 1.5816. Dips towards the lower edge of the 2-month uptrend channel have been few and far between which has ensured the market is still clawing to get in on this trade but long positioning is still by no means crowded.
We now see an even steeper 2-week downtrend in play within the 2-month uptrend, and the upper edge of that channel is now eyed at 1.5835; the combination of that and the 1.5816 resistance may be enough to rebut the rally on the first attempt, so we would be alert to dips back towards 1.5650 to go long smalls (at this late stage in the game we are as enthusiastic to go in with a full-sized position).
Good support is anticipated around the 200-day moving average at 1.5539 and 1.5525 pivot, then again at 1.5443 (27 Jul low). Should the move proceed higher through 1.5816 and 1.5835, then all focus will be on a triumphant return to 1.6000.
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USDCHF
This has been a very funny one to trade from a technical standpoint; after breaking through its massively significant 1.0400 support in the latter part of last week, one would have thought that the weak US GDP on Friday and new lows in USDJPY would have been the perfect ingredients to spark another push lower in USDCHF. But the pair held firm –and is now above 1.0400 and climbing…
If anything, the price action is still extremely range-bound and directionless so at these levels it seems that the topside will present the route of least friction, even if our core view if for a move lower in the medium term.
Selling interest is expected to materialize around 1.0465 and 1.0560 former supports, followed by significant resistance at 1.0647 (13 Jul & 27 Jul highs and 200-day moving average). On the downside, Friday’s low at 1.0362 is the last level before former downtrend support at 1.0330.
USDCHF
This has been a very funny one to trade from a technical standpoint; after breaking through its massively significant 1.0400 support in the latter part of last week, one would have thought that the weak US GDP on Friday and new lows in USDJPY would have been the perfect ingredients to spark another push lower in USDCHF. But the pair held firm –and is now above 1.0400 and climbing…
If anything, the price action is still extremely range-bound and directionless so at these levels it seems that the topside will present the route of least friction, even if our core view if for a move lower in the medium term.
Selling interest is expected to materialize around 1.0465 and 1.0560 former supports, followed by significant resistance at 1.0647 (13 Jul & 27 Jul highs and 200-day moving average). On the downside, Friday’s low at 1.0362 is the last level before former downtrend support at 1.0330.
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USDJPY
Weaker than expected US GDP managed to pierce the important 86.25 support level on Friday, precipitating a new 2010 low of 85.98; rather than prompting an all-out collapse however, the pair has since managed to claw back some of these losses, and is now back above 86.75 resistance.
Continued rallies are nevertheless likely to face strong resistance towards the back side of the former 1-week uptrend (now seen at 87.45), and beyond there the 2-month downtrend has now crept down to 87.60 with 88.00 also just behind.
The downside still seems the far more vulnerable direction from here after that dip below 86.00, and should we take another tumble below there then the prospects look grim for anyone still clinging to longs; downtrend channel support at 85.55 is the only demand anticipated ahead of the November 2009 low of 84.83.
USDJPY
Weaker than expected US GDP managed to pierce the important 86.25 support level on Friday, precipitating a new 2010 low of 85.98; rather than prompting an all-out collapse however, the pair has since managed to claw back some of these losses, and is now back above 86.75 resistance.
Continued rallies are nevertheless likely to face strong resistance towards the back side of the former 1-week uptrend (now seen at 87.45), and beyond there the 2-month downtrend has now crept down to 87.60 with 88.00 also just behind.
The downside still seems the far more vulnerable direction from here after that dip below 86.00, and should we take another tumble below there then the prospects look grim for anyone still clinging to longs; downtrend channel support at 85.55 is the only demand anticipated ahead of the November 2009 low of 84.83.
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EURUSD
The gradual grind higher continues for EURUSD; but it has been slow progress for the bulls, and there has been no new high to report since Thursday’s peak of 1.3106. We are still playing the bullish break out of a symmetrical triangle pattern on the hourly chart, and based on the projected path of that triangle we are expecting a move to 1.3290 in the coming days.
However the key to this pattern staying alive will be the fidelity of the 1-month uptrend (currently coming in around 1.3020), and therefore we trail our stop just below that uptrend line to ensure we lock in some profits should risk appetite turn sour. Resistance is expected to remain in play around 1.3106, but beyond there we have a very clear path up to next levels 1.3213 and 1.3254 (14 and 13 May highs respectively).
Should the 1-month uptrend give way, then the levels eyed beyond are the 100-day moving average 1.2843, followed by 1.2793 (23 Jul low), 1.2733 (21 Jul low), 1.2683 (14 Jul low) and 1.2522 (13 Jul low).
EURUSD
The gradual grind higher continues for EURUSD; but it has been slow progress for the bulls, and there has been no new high to report since Thursday’s peak of 1.3106. We are still playing the bullish break out of a symmetrical triangle pattern on the hourly chart, and based on the projected path of that triangle we are expecting a move to 1.3290 in the coming days.
However the key to this pattern staying alive will be the fidelity of the 1-month uptrend (currently coming in around 1.3020), and therefore we trail our stop just below that uptrend line to ensure we lock in some profits should risk appetite turn sour. Resistance is expected to remain in play around 1.3106, but beyond there we have a very clear path up to next levels 1.3213 and 1.3254 (14 and 13 May highs respectively).
Should the 1-month uptrend give way, then the levels eyed beyond are the 100-day moving average 1.2843, followed by 1.2793 (23 Jul low), 1.2733 (21 Jul low), 1.2683 (14 Jul low) and 1.2522 (13 Jul low).
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