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USDCHF
The bears have jumped all over this pair since the break of the 1-week uptrend yesterday morning, and major support at 1.0400 is being mauled to pieces as we speak.
We now see a possible bearish flag pattern on the hourly chart, and therefore wait to go short on a confirmed break below 1.0390 with a proposed target of 1.0230. This target is identical to the low seen on the 19 Jan so there is some argument for being a little less ambitious than the flag target would normally suggest, so we propose a 1.0250 take profit on the downside.
There are still some potential stumbling blocks to overcome along the way; the first of those being the 25 Jan low 1.0368 and the back side of a former downtrend at 1.0350.
Selling interest is expected to materialize around 1.0450 and 1.0560 former supports, followed by significant at 1.0647 (13 Jul & 27 Jul highs and 200-day moving average).
USDCHF
The bears have jumped all over this pair since the break of the 1-week uptrend yesterday morning, and major support at 1.0400 is being mauled to pieces as we speak.
We now see a possible bearish flag pattern on the hourly chart, and therefore wait to go short on a confirmed break below 1.0390 with a proposed target of 1.0230. This target is identical to the low seen on the 19 Jan so there is some argument for being a little less ambitious than the flag target would normally suggest, so we propose a 1.0250 take profit on the downside.
There are still some potential stumbling blocks to overcome along the way; the first of those being the 25 Jan low 1.0368 and the back side of a former downtrend at 1.0350.
Selling interest is expected to materialize around 1.0450 and 1.0560 former supports, followed by significant at 1.0647 (13 Jul & 27 Jul highs and 200-day moving average).
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GBPUSD
Much like EURUSD, GBPUSD has managed to reach new highs at 1.5656; but the progress since yesterday has been modest to say the least, and market participation later on is likely to hinge on the outcome of this afternoon’s US GDP release.
As previously discussed, we feel that the UK GDP figures last Friday were a game changer, and from here we would relish any dips towards the lower edge of the current uptrend channel now seen at 1.5420 to get long. The way things have gone so far, we may not even get a correction that deep as good support is also anticipated around the 200-day moving average at 1.5541, 1.5525 pivot, then again at 1.5443 (27 Jul low).
Really there is not much standing in the way of an assault on the 17 Feb high 1.5816 in the coming days, and beyond there we open up the possibility of re-testing the top of the 8-week uptrend channel (currently at 1.5980) before the psychologically significant 1.6000.
GBPUSD
Much like EURUSD, GBPUSD has managed to reach new highs at 1.5656; but the progress since yesterday has been modest to say the least, and market participation later on is likely to hinge on the outcome of this afternoon’s US GDP release.
As previously discussed, we feel that the UK GDP figures last Friday were a game changer, and from here we would relish any dips towards the lower edge of the current uptrend channel now seen at 1.5420 to get long. The way things have gone so far, we may not even get a correction that deep as good support is also anticipated around the 200-day moving average at 1.5541, 1.5525 pivot, then again at 1.5443 (27 Jul low).
Really there is not much standing in the way of an assault on the 17 Feb high 1.5816 in the coming days, and beyond there we open up the possibility of re-testing the top of the 8-week uptrend channel (currently at 1.5980) before the psychologically significant 1.6000.
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USDJPY
Ongoing bearish momentum has quickly managed to negate the 1-week uptrend and accompanying bullish scenarios we discussed earlier in the week, and this morning the pair is looking to threaten the critical 86.25 downside support.
Should that support give way then the prospects look grim for anyone still clinging to longs; downtrend channel resistance at 85.60 is the only support anticipated ahead of the November 2009 low of 84.83; and the notable lack of interventionist rhetoric from the BoJ is also likely to cast doubts. As such, we’d actually look to get short on an hourly close through 86.25, and target 85.00 as a first target.
Rallies are likely to face resistance back towards the back side of the 1-week uptrend (now seen at 87.30, and beyond there the 8-week downtrend has now crept down to 87.75 with 88.00 also just behind.
USDJPY
Ongoing bearish momentum has quickly managed to negate the 1-week uptrend and accompanying bullish scenarios we discussed earlier in the week, and this morning the pair is looking to threaten the critical 86.25 downside support.
Should that support give way then the prospects look grim for anyone still clinging to longs; downtrend channel resistance at 85.60 is the only support anticipated ahead of the November 2009 low of 84.83; and the notable lack of interventionist rhetoric from the BoJ is also likely to cast doubts. As such, we’d actually look to get short on an hourly close through 86.25, and target 85.00 as a first target.
Rallies are likely to face resistance back towards the back side of the 1-week uptrend (now seen at 87.30, and beyond there the 8-week downtrend has now crept down to 87.75 with 88.00 also just behind.
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EURUSD
The gradual grind higher continues for EURUSD; after popping above 1.3046 resistance yesterday the pair had a couple of quick peeks above 1.3100, but choppy and sideways price action is likely to dominate ahead of today’s Eurozone unemployment reading and US GDP this afternoon. We are still playing the bullish break out of a symmetrical triangle pattern on the hourly chart, and based on the projected path of that triangle we are expecting a move to 1.3290 in the coming days.
Resistance is expected to remain in play around yesterday’s highs of 1.3106, but beyond there we have a very clear path up to next levels 1.3213 and 1.3254 (14 and 13 May highs respectively).
1-month uptrend support is eyed at 1.2980, then the 100-day moving average 1.2849, followed by 1.2793 (23 Jul low), 1.2733 (21 Jul low), 1.2683 (14 Jul low) and 1.2522 (13 Jul low).
EURUSD
The gradual grind higher continues for EURUSD; after popping above 1.3046 resistance yesterday the pair had a couple of quick peeks above 1.3100, but choppy and sideways price action is likely to dominate ahead of today’s Eurozone unemployment reading and US GDP this afternoon. We are still playing the bullish break out of a symmetrical triangle pattern on the hourly chart, and based on the projected path of that triangle we are expecting a move to 1.3290 in the coming days.
Resistance is expected to remain in play around yesterday’s highs of 1.3106, but beyond there we have a very clear path up to next levels 1.3213 and 1.3254 (14 and 13 May highs respectively).
1-month uptrend support is eyed at 1.2980, then the 100-day moving average 1.2849, followed by 1.2793 (23 Jul low), 1.2733 (21 Jul low), 1.2683 (14 Jul low) and 1.2522 (13 Jul low).
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USDCHF
Despite the bullish engulfing candlestick on Monday/Tuesday of this week AND the important break of the 1-month downtrend channel, the bulls have looked lacklustre in the past 24 hours and have sloppily allowed the 1-week uptrend to break down around 1.0560.
This conclusively negates the bullish flag pattern we had proposed yesterday, and seems compelling argument to move to the sidelines for the time being on this one and wait for more favourable risk-reward trades to present themselves.
Buyers should be able to catch the fall if it extends to 1.0450, and an extremely important support still remains at 1.0400 so we would look to resume buying down at those levels. Strong selling interest may once again cap rallies at 1.0640-47 (13 Jul & 27 Jul highs and 200-day moving average), and given the propensity of July/August markets to be directionless and range bound, we would actually look to sell at those levels rather than look for a continuation higher. IF the bulls manage to pull their fingers out and effect that break higher, a powerful resistance level around 1.0700 is backed up but the top of the 1-week uptrend at 1.0710.
USDCHF
Despite the bullish engulfing candlestick on Monday/Tuesday of this week AND the important break of the 1-month downtrend channel, the bulls have looked lacklustre in the past 24 hours and have sloppily allowed the 1-week uptrend to break down around 1.0560.
This conclusively negates the bullish flag pattern we had proposed yesterday, and seems compelling argument to move to the sidelines for the time being on this one and wait for more favourable risk-reward trades to present themselves.
Buyers should be able to catch the fall if it extends to 1.0450, and an extremely important support still remains at 1.0400 so we would look to resume buying down at those levels. Strong selling interest may once again cap rallies at 1.0640-47 (13 Jul & 27 Jul highs and 200-day moving average), and given the propensity of July/August markets to be directionless and range bound, we would actually look to sell at those levels rather than look for a continuation higher. IF the bulls manage to pull their fingers out and effect that break higher, a powerful resistance level around 1.0700 is backed up but the top of the 1-week uptrend at 1.0710.
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GBPUSD
There were a few hairy moments yesterday for GBPUSD as BoE’s King hit the newswires to downplay the significance of the latest GDP reading, but tellingly the temporary sell-off was met with eager buyers clambering to get in on this impressive GBPUSD recovery, and the pair has since pushed to fresh highs of 1.5655.
As previously discussed, we feel that the UK GDP figures last Friday were a game changer, and from here we would relish any dips towards the lower edge of the current uptrend channel now seen at 1.5385 to get long. The way things have gone so far, we may not even get a correction that deep as decent support is also anticipated around the 200-day moving average at 1.5545, 1.5525 pivot, then again at 1.5443 (yesterday’s low).
Really there is not much standing in the way of an assault on the 17 Feb high 1.5816 in the coming days, and beyond there we open up the possibility of re-testing the top of the 8-week uptrend channel (currently at 1.5950) before the psychologically significant 1.6000.
GBPUSD
There were a few hairy moments yesterday for GBPUSD as BoE’s King hit the newswires to downplay the significance of the latest GDP reading, but tellingly the temporary sell-off was met with eager buyers clambering to get in on this impressive GBPUSD recovery, and the pair has since pushed to fresh highs of 1.5655.
As previously discussed, we feel that the UK GDP figures last Friday were a game changer, and from here we would relish any dips towards the lower edge of the current uptrend channel now seen at 1.5385 to get long. The way things have gone so far, we may not even get a correction that deep as decent support is also anticipated around the 200-day moving average at 1.5545, 1.5525 pivot, then again at 1.5443 (yesterday’s low).
Really there is not much standing in the way of an assault on the 17 Feb high 1.5816 in the coming days, and beyond there we open up the possibility of re-testing the top of the 8-week uptrend channel (currently at 1.5950) before the psychologically significant 1.6000.
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USDJPY
USDJPY may have slumped in a rather ungainly fashion back below 87.50 in the past few sessions, but the pair is at the very least continued carve out successively higher highs and higher lows since the double bottom around 86.25 levels.
The last rally (which topped out at 88.11) was thwarted by a pretty formidable confluence of resistance levels (8-week downtrend resistance, top of 1-week uptrend channel and 88.00 pivot), but we still believe the bulls can overcome these barriers on a subsequent re-test now they are more comfortably spaced out. The 8-week downtrend has now crept down to 87.90 while the top of the current uptrend channel has climbed to 88.25; however thereafter few levels are discernible ahead of our triangle target 88.85. Should the rally have the momentum to continue beyond there, look for sellers at 89.15 (12 Jul high) and 89.50 (28-29 Jun high).
The most convincing support level to try getting in on the long trade appears to be the lower edge of the 1-week uptrend which is now seen at 87.10-15 (already had one test of that area this morning), then further supports anticipated at 86.82 (Tuesday’s low) and 86.25 (recent range floor).
USDJPY
USDJPY may have slumped in a rather ungainly fashion back below 87.50 in the past few sessions, but the pair is at the very least continued carve out successively higher highs and higher lows since the double bottom around 86.25 levels.
The last rally (which topped out at 88.11) was thwarted by a pretty formidable confluence of resistance levels (8-week downtrend resistance, top of 1-week uptrend channel and 88.00 pivot), but we still believe the bulls can overcome these barriers on a subsequent re-test now they are more comfortably spaced out. The 8-week downtrend has now crept down to 87.90 while the top of the current uptrend channel has climbed to 88.25; however thereafter few levels are discernible ahead of our triangle target 88.85. Should the rally have the momentum to continue beyond there, look for sellers at 89.15 (12 Jul high) and 89.50 (28-29 Jun high).
The most convincing support level to try getting in on the long trade appears to be the lower edge of the 1-week uptrend which is now seen at 87.10-15 (already had one test of that area this morning), then further supports anticipated at 86.82 (Tuesday’s low) and 86.25 (recent range floor).
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EURUSD
We’ve had another day of tight range trading in EURUSD, and for the time being there is a ceiling of resistance at 1.3046 that is blocking the path higher. We are still playing the bullish break out of a symmetrical triangle pattern on the hourly chart, and based on the projected path of that triangle we are expecting a move to 1.3290 in the coming days.
Once we clear 1.3046, the next resistance level is expected at 1.3093 (10 May high) with weak resistance also anticipated at 1.3213 and 1.3254 (14 and 13 May highs respectively).
Support at 1.2950 is still valid, with trendline support just below at 1.2940 –should the pair drop below there we would have to concede the failure of the bullish triangle breakout, and would then eye technical levels below at 1.2793 (23 Jul low), 1.2733 (21 Jul low), 1.2683 (14 Jul low) and 1.2522 (13 Jul low).
EURUSD
We’ve had another day of tight range trading in EURUSD, and for the time being there is a ceiling of resistance at 1.3046 that is blocking the path higher. We are still playing the bullish break out of a symmetrical triangle pattern on the hourly chart, and based on the projected path of that triangle we are expecting a move to 1.3290 in the coming days.
Once we clear 1.3046, the next resistance level is expected at 1.3093 (10 May high) with weak resistance also anticipated at 1.3213 and 1.3254 (14 and 13 May highs respectively).
Support at 1.2950 is still valid, with trendline support just below at 1.2940 –should the pair drop below there we would have to concede the failure of the bullish triangle breakout, and would then eye technical levels below at 1.2793 (23 Jul low), 1.2733 (21 Jul low), 1.2683 (14 Jul low) and 1.2522 (13 Jul low).
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USDCHF
The bulls finally got a better grip on USDCHF yesterday, and not only managed to take out the stubborn 1.0565 resistance level, but then to print a bullish engulfing candlestick on the daily chart.
We now see a fresh bullish flag pattern possible on the hourly chart which would suggest that on a break above 1.0620 we should go long and aim for a target around 1.0770. Standing in our way before that would be yesterday’s high 1.0640 (roughly coinciding with the 200-day moving average at 1.0644), the top of the 1-week uptrend channel at 1.0685, then the major 1.0700 level.
Bidders are very likely to lurk around 1.0565 where the old resistance level once stood, then 1.0450and 1.0400.
USDCHF
The bulls finally got a better grip on USDCHF yesterday, and not only managed to take out the stubborn 1.0565 resistance level, but then to print a bullish engulfing candlestick on the daily chart.
We now see a fresh bullish flag pattern possible on the hourly chart which would suggest that on a break above 1.0620 we should go long and aim for a target around 1.0770. Standing in our way before that would be yesterday’s high 1.0640 (roughly coinciding with the 200-day moving average at 1.0644), the top of the 1-week uptrend channel at 1.0685, then the major 1.0700 level.
Bidders are very likely to lurk around 1.0565 where the old resistance level once stood, then 1.0450and 1.0400.
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GBPUSD
GBPUSD continues to march unwaveringly higher, making easy work of the tangle of technical resistance levels between 1.5525-75 (15 April high, 200-day moving average and 23 Feb high) and going on to touch 1.5627 this morning.
As previously discussed, we feel that the UK GDP figures last Friday were a game changer, and from here we would relish any dips towards the lower edge of the current uptrend channel now seen at 1.5350 (coinciding with a recent pivot level) to get long, and set a stop through 1.5300. Really there is not much standing in the way of an assault on the 17 Feb high 1.5816 in the coming days, then only uptrend resistance (currently at 1.5905) before the psychological significant 1.6000.
Supports now seen below at 1.5525, 1.5450 and 1.5350.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD continues to march unwaveringly higher, making easy work of the tangle of technical resistance levels between 1.5525-75 (15 April high, 200-day moving average and 23 Feb high) and going on to touch 1.5627 this morning.
As previously discussed, we feel that the UK GDP figures last Friday were a game changer, and from here we would relish any dips towards the lower edge of the current uptrend channel now seen at 1.5350 (coinciding with a recent pivot level) to get long, and set a stop through 1.5300. Really there is not much standing in the way of an assault on the 17 Feb high 1.5816 in the coming days, then only uptrend resistance (currently at 1.5905) before the psychological significant 1.6000.
Supports now seen below at 1.5525, 1.5450 and 1.5350.
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