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USDCHF
After Wednesday’s short squeeze came to an abrupt halt at 1.1138 (identical to last Monday’s high), the bears have jumped all over this pair and the relentless downward pressure has now taken us all the way to lows of 1.0850.
The downside now looks extremely vulnerable; with next support not anticipated until 1.0770 (where a shallow trendline support is eyed), then 1.0732 (2 May low), so really this looks like a sell-on-rallies-pair from here.
Ideally, we would like to see a bounce back towards 1.0924 (the low from 10 May) to get in on the short trade; knowing that the 100-day moving average lies just above there at 1.0945 and decent selling interest is likely to lurk ahead of 1.0975 where the upper edge of our 3-week downtrend channel also comes in today.
After Wednesday’s short squeeze came to an abrupt halt at 1.1138 (identical to last Monday’s high), the bears have jumped all over this pair and the relentless downward pressure has now taken us all the way to lows of 1.0850.
The downside now looks extremely vulnerable; with next support not anticipated until 1.0770 (where a shallow trendline support is eyed), then 1.0732 (2 May low), so really this looks like a sell-on-rallies-pair from here.
Ideally, we would like to see a bounce back towards 1.0924 (the low from 10 May) to get in on the short trade; knowing that the 100-day moving average lies just above there at 1.0945 and decent selling interest is likely to lurk ahead of 1.0975 where the upper edge of our 3-week downtrend channel also comes in today.
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GBPUSD
As if we didn’t get have enough grief worrying about the England match, there was further frustration on Friday as we just missed the entry price where we had hoped to go long GBPUSD (1.4850), and instead after seeing it plunge as far as 1.4857, the pair rocketed higher to hit highs of 1.5073 –well in excess of our 1.5000 target. Grrr.
Those highs and the current price both lie above the 100-day moving average (1.5039) and the 5-week uptrend channel we have been tracking on the hourly chart, but the extension higher has been limited by resistance around 1.5055 (10 May high).
The psychologically important 1.5000 level below should now act as a support level for further gains, but be wary that any sudden plunge through there leaves very little support blow before 1.4850 again. On the topside, next resistance above 1.5073 is due at 1.5150 (top edge of a 3-week uptrend channel), then 1.5210 last seen 4 May.
As if we didn’t get have enough grief worrying about the England match, there was further frustration on Friday as we just missed the entry price where we had hoped to go long GBPUSD (1.4850), and instead after seeing it plunge as far as 1.4857, the pair rocketed higher to hit highs of 1.5073 –well in excess of our 1.5000 target. Grrr.
Those highs and the current price both lie above the 100-day moving average (1.5039) and the 5-week uptrend channel we have been tracking on the hourly chart, but the extension higher has been limited by resistance around 1.5055 (10 May high).
The psychologically important 1.5000 level below should now act as a support level for further gains, but be wary that any sudden plunge through there leaves very little support blow before 1.4850 again. On the topside, next resistance above 1.5073 is due at 1.5150 (top edge of a 3-week uptrend channel), then 1.5210 last seen 4 May.
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USDJPY
The encouraging pledges from the weekend’s G20 summit has certainly stemmed the blood loss in USDJPY, but the overriding bear trend is still fully operational and likely to weigh on rallies in the short-term.
The 89.15-25 area of support has been the platform for a small bounce this morning –but only as far as 89.46, and given the continued pressure on US yields we would not be surprised to see another dip to the vulnerable supports below; 88.95 (20 May low and lower edge of the 3-week downtrend), then 87.99 (low from 6 May).
Expect price action to be very sticky through today’s highs (89.46), and around last week’s pivot level 89.75; with further sellers predicted around 90.00 and the 200-day moving average 90.87.
The encouraging pledges from the weekend’s G20 summit has certainly stemmed the blood loss in USDJPY, but the overriding bear trend is still fully operational and likely to weigh on rallies in the short-term.
The 89.15-25 area of support has been the platform for a small bounce this morning –but only as far as 89.46, and given the continued pressure on US yields we would not be surprised to see another dip to the vulnerable supports below; 88.95 (20 May low and lower edge of the 3-week downtrend), then 87.99 (low from 6 May).
Expect price action to be very sticky through today’s highs (89.46), and around last week’s pivot level 89.75; with further sellers predicted around 90.00 and the 200-day moving average 90.87.
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EURUSD
Let’s confront the elephant in the room right away; yes, 4-1 is a shocker of a result against the Germans –it’s a sombre mood on the ACM strategy desk today. But on the bright side, have got Slovakia in the office sweepstake so there’s still one chance at glory alive and kicking...
In the meantime, EURUSD looks to be on the path to further gains after breaking above its 1-week downtrend on Friday, and after a sluggish start from Asian equities this week we may be able to get in on a quick long trade on a dip back towards that trendline. Currently the back side of the downtrend is seen at 1.2300 so we’d be happy getting long there, setting a stop just below the 1.2260 support (which supported the pair during the latter part of last week), and looking for another visit to 1.2400 (overnight high 1.2406).
Above 1.2400, the next resistance levels are eyed at 1.2468 (18 Jun and 21 Jun highs) the 50-day moving average at 1.2555, then the 1.2600 level last seen on 21 May.
Should the re-test of the old downtrend break, then we still expect some protection at 1.2290 just below (where a very short-term uptrend comes in today), 1.2260 (as discussed above), 1.2209 (the low water mark last week) and 1.2170 (where the 15 Jun lows coincide with the 50.0% fibonacci retracement of 1.1827 -1.2468).
Let’s confront the elephant in the room right away; yes, 4-1 is a shocker of a result against the Germans –it’s a sombre mood on the ACM strategy desk today. But on the bright side, have got Slovakia in the office sweepstake so there’s still one chance at glory alive and kicking...
In the meantime, EURUSD looks to be on the path to further gains after breaking above its 1-week downtrend on Friday, and after a sluggish start from Asian equities this week we may be able to get in on a quick long trade on a dip back towards that trendline. Currently the back side of the downtrend is seen at 1.2300 so we’d be happy getting long there, setting a stop just below the 1.2260 support (which supported the pair during the latter part of last week), and looking for another visit to 1.2400 (overnight high 1.2406).
Above 1.2400, the next resistance levels are eyed at 1.2468 (18 Jun and 21 Jun highs) the 50-day moving average at 1.2555, then the 1.2600 level last seen on 21 May.
Should the re-test of the old downtrend break, then we still expect some protection at 1.2290 just below (where a very short-term uptrend comes in today), 1.2260 (as discussed above), 1.2209 (the low water mark last week) and 1.2170 (where the 15 Jun lows coincide with the 50.0% fibonacci retracement of 1.1827 -1.2468).
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USDCHF
After Wednesday’s short squeeze came to an abrupt halt at 1.1138 (identical to Monday’s high), the bears have jumped all over this pair and pushed it below 1.1000, touching a low of 1.0985.
Our directional bias in the very short term is neutral (with a bearish preference in the medium-term), so we would expect a bounce off this 1.0985-1.1000 support, then look to sell rallies towards 1.1138.
We ultimately believe that after this period of consolidation, the bearish trend will extend further; next major support is expected at 1.0924-44 (10 May lows and 100-day moving average) –and as such should be respected as a likely platform for a rebound on the first visit.
After Wednesday’s short squeeze came to an abrupt halt at 1.1138 (identical to Monday’s high), the bears have jumped all over this pair and pushed it below 1.1000, touching a low of 1.0985.
Our directional bias in the very short term is neutral (with a bearish preference in the medium-term), so we would expect a bounce off this 1.0985-1.1000 support, then look to sell rallies towards 1.1138.
We ultimately believe that after this period of consolidation, the bearish trend will extend further; next major support is expected at 1.0924-44 (10 May lows and 100-day moving average) –and as such should be respected as a likely platform for a rebound on the first visit.
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GBPUSD
The short/medium-term trend for GBPUSD remains upward, but as we anticipated, there was some paring back of recent gains in yesterday’s session. At the present time we linger towards the upper edge of 2 different uptrend channels which does not make fresh long entry attractive from a risk-reward perspective, so instead we look to wait for a deeper correction before buying back in.
Those with itchy trigger fingers should probably hold fire until 1.4850 levels before re-loading longs, but for the more cautious, the next best area for buyers will be around trendline support currently 1.4780. This latter area does however, currently sit below Wednesday’s ledge of support at 1.4800 and the 50-day moving average at 1.4817, so we feel 1.4820-30 levels presents the best compromise (especially as the trendline support will only drift higher as the session progresses).
1.5000 still represents a major psychological barrier for rallies, butthe latest surge to highs of 1.5012 does suggest to us it will not remain so for long. Above there the 100-day moving average is hovering at 1.5044 and the 10 May high at 1.5055.
The short/medium-term trend for GBPUSD remains upward, but as we anticipated, there was some paring back of recent gains in yesterday’s session. At the present time we linger towards the upper edge of 2 different uptrend channels which does not make fresh long entry attractive from a risk-reward perspective, so instead we look to wait for a deeper correction before buying back in.
Those with itchy trigger fingers should probably hold fire until 1.4850 levels before re-loading longs, but for the more cautious, the next best area for buyers will be around trendline support currently 1.4780. This latter area does however, currently sit below Wednesday’s ledge of support at 1.4800 and the 50-day moving average at 1.4817, so we feel 1.4820-30 levels presents the best compromise (especially as the trendline support will only drift higher as the session progresses).
1.5000 still represents a major psychological barrier for rallies, butthe latest surge to highs of 1.5012 does suggest to us it will not remain so for long. Above there the 100-day moving average is hovering at 1.5044 and the 10 May high at 1.5055.
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USDJPY
The pressure on US Treasury yields has weighed heavily on USDJPY this week, and after the break of 89.80 crucial support, we have seen an extended collapse to lows of 89.23. Thus far the sell-off has been caught by demand around 89.26 (25 May low), but given the tremendously bearish tone of late we would not be surprised to see another dip to the vulnerable supports below; 88.95 (20 May low), then 87.99 low from 6 May).
For the time being, price action will be very sticky above 89.75, with further sellers predicted around 90.00, the 200-day moving average 90.88, Monday’s 91.48 high, then last Wednesday’s highs at 91.82.
The pressure on US Treasury yields has weighed heavily on USDJPY this week, and after the break of 89.80 crucial support, we have seen an extended collapse to lows of 89.23. Thus far the sell-off has been caught by demand around 89.26 (25 May low), but given the tremendously bearish tone of late we would not be surprised to see another dip to the vulnerable supports below; 88.95 (20 May low), then 87.99 low from 6 May).
For the time being, price action will be very sticky above 89.75, with further sellers predicted around 90.00, the 200-day moving average 90.88, Monday’s 91.48 high, then last Wednesday’s highs at 91.82.
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EURUSD
Morning all, after the thrills and spills of Slovakia vs. Italy yesterday, the developments in EURUSD over the past 24 hours seem rather humdrum. As nasty short squeeze across the EUR-crosses yesterday afternoon made light work of violating the 1.2328 resistance (23.6% fibonacci retracement of 1.1876 –1.2468) and subsequently the 1-week downtrend around 1.2360; but as of yet we haven’t seen buyers gather enough momentum to sustain the break higher.
We now perceive a very short-term uptrend that has been in play since the middle of this week, and which now threatens to overthrow the 1-week downtrend as the dominant short-term trend. Expect uptrend support at 1.2295-1.2300, and given the breach of 1.2350-70 once already, we predict another push higher through the 1-week downtrend at 1.2335, which should allow a second crack at yesterday’s high 1.2388 and1.2450-70 (28 May high at 1.2452, recent double top highs 1.2468).
Should the sell-off continue back through this uptrend (i.e. a resumption of the 1-week downtrend), next pockets of support are due around 1.2260 (yesterday’s lows), 1.2209 (the low water mark this week) and 1.2170 (where the 15 Jun lows coincide with the 50.0% fibonacci retracement).
Morning all, after the thrills and spills of Slovakia vs. Italy yesterday, the developments in EURUSD over the past 24 hours seem rather humdrum. As nasty short squeeze across the EUR-crosses yesterday afternoon made light work of violating the 1.2328 resistance (23.6% fibonacci retracement of 1.1876 –1.2468) and subsequently the 1-week downtrend around 1.2360; but as of yet we haven’t seen buyers gather enough momentum to sustain the break higher.
We now perceive a very short-term uptrend that has been in play since the middle of this week, and which now threatens to overthrow the 1-week downtrend as the dominant short-term trend. Expect uptrend support at 1.2295-1.2300, and given the breach of 1.2350-70 once already, we predict another push higher through the 1-week downtrend at 1.2335, which should allow a second crack at yesterday’s high 1.2388 and1.2450-70 (28 May high at 1.2452, recent double top highs 1.2468).
Should the sell-off continue back through this uptrend (i.e. a resumption of the 1-week downtrend), next pockets of support are due around 1.2260 (yesterday’s lows), 1.2209 (the low water mark this week) and 1.2170 (where the 15 Jun lows coincide with the 50.0% fibonacci retracement).
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EURUSD
A callous twist for everyone –including ourselves –who had been relying on 1.2240 support to hold for bounce higher; absolutely dreadful US housing figures yesterday afternoon (New Home Sales declined to lowest level since 1963) gave risk-appetite an almighty punch in the stomach triggering stops all the way through our precious support to lows of 1.2209. The price action unsurprisingly stopped us out at 1.2220 in the process, then as if to add salt to the wound, the pair then proceeded to whipsaw back higher to hit our target 1.2350. And they say football can be a cruel game...
We now feel that the sellers should have the upper hand at these elevated levels, as 1.2350 represents a fairly robust pivot level in the short-term, and in addition we see a potential 1-week downtrend channel that should come into play around 1.2370. As such we’d look to sell around 1.2320-30 levels (note the 23.6% fibonacci retracement of 1.1876 –1.2468 comes in at 1.2328), and look for a move back towards the mid 1.22s.
Should the sell-off continue back towards the lows, we still believe some demand should precipitate around 1.2170 (where the 15 Jun lows coincide with the 50.0% fibonacci retracement), then 1.2145 former pivot level, and 1.2045 (11 Jun low). On the topside, a renewed bullish move through 1.2350-70 would open up a visit to 1.2450-70 (28 May high at 1.2452, recent double top highs 1.2468).
A callous twist for everyone –including ourselves –who had been relying on 1.2240 support to hold for bounce higher; absolutely dreadful US housing figures yesterday afternoon (New Home Sales declined to lowest level since 1963) gave risk-appetite an almighty punch in the stomach triggering stops all the way through our precious support to lows of 1.2209. The price action unsurprisingly stopped us out at 1.2220 in the process, then as if to add salt to the wound, the pair then proceeded to whipsaw back higher to hit our target 1.2350. And they say football can be a cruel game...
We now feel that the sellers should have the upper hand at these elevated levels, as 1.2350 represents a fairly robust pivot level in the short-term, and in addition we see a potential 1-week downtrend channel that should come into play around 1.2370. As such we’d look to sell around 1.2320-30 levels (note the 23.6% fibonacci retracement of 1.1876 –1.2468 comes in at 1.2328), and look for a move back towards the mid 1.22s.
Should the sell-off continue back towards the lows, we still believe some demand should precipitate around 1.2170 (where the 15 Jun lows coincide with the 50.0% fibonacci retracement), then 1.2145 former pivot level, and 1.2045 (11 Jun low). On the topside, a renewed bullish move through 1.2350-70 would open up a visit to 1.2450-70 (28 May high at 1.2452, recent double top highs 1.2468).
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USDJPY
Things going from bad to worse for USDJPY as the bears jumped all over weak US housing data and somewhat dovish FOMC statement last night; completely disregarding the 200-day moving average at 90.89, before twice violating the 89.80 crucial support, and this morning threatening the lower edge of the 2-week downtrend at 89.65.
We are now extremely wary of attempting long entry given the immediate supports have already been breached once; below 89.65 trendline support there is actually very little anticipated demand until 89.26 (25 May low), 88.95 (20 May low), then 87.99 low from 6 May).
Rebound rallies from here will meet trendline resistance at 90.25 former support, then at the same levels discussed yesterday; Monday’s 91.48 high, the 100-day moving average at 91.57, and last Wednesday’s highs at 91.82.
Things going from bad to worse for USDJPY as the bears jumped all over weak US housing data and somewhat dovish FOMC statement last night; completely disregarding the 200-day moving average at 90.89, before twice violating the 89.80 crucial support, and this morning threatening the lower edge of the 2-week downtrend at 89.65.
We are now extremely wary of attempting long entry given the immediate supports have already been breached once; below 89.65 trendline support there is actually very little anticipated demand until 89.26 (25 May low), 88.95 (20 May low), then 87.99 low from 6 May).
Rebound rallies from here will meet trendline resistance at 90.25 former support, then at the same levels discussed yesterday; Monday’s 91.48 high, the 100-day moving average at 91.57, and last Wednesday’s highs at 91.82.
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