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EURUSD

The rally continues for EURUSD, with today’s surge clocking up a high of 1.3028. Over the last few sessions our focus has predominantly been on the hourly chart (and the 4-week uptrend channel that has guided up from 1.2150), but today it is worth taking a look at the bigger picture revealed by the daily chart as it appears we may be approaching a significant juncture where the bears may start to exert their force once more.

Since touching the lows of 1.1876 back on 7 Jun, EURUSD has taken a mere 6 weeks to rally over 9.5% (!), but a formidable resistance zone is now on the horizon which would prompt us to start getting short and selling on any rallies towards 1.3050 (we may not even get to see that level though so our preference is to scale into the position gradually above 1.3000). For one thing, the 4-week uptrend channel resistance we’ve been monitoring on the hourly chart now comes in at 1.3080, and is backed up by a significant former high at 1.3095 (seen on 10 May). The added information the daily chart can give us is that at 1.3125 there is also the 38.2% fibonacci retracement of the entire sell-off from 1.5145 to 1.1876 which should present a major hurdle for this relief rally to overcome.

We still expect some buyers to lie around 1.2905 (100-day moving average), 1.2871 (yesterday’s low), 1.2780 (a former pivot), and 1.2683 (last Wednesday’s low).

EURUSD

The rally continues for EURUSD, with today’s surge clocking up a high of 1.3028. Over the last few sessions our focus has predominantly been on the hourly chart (and the 4-week uptrend channel that has guided up from 1.2150), but today it is worth taking a look at the bigger picture revealed by the daily chart as it appears we may be approaching a significant juncture where the bears may start to exert their force once more.

Since touching the lows of 1.1876 back on 7 Jun, EURUSD has taken a mere 6 weeks to rally over 9.5% (!), but a formidable resistance zone is now on the horizon which would prompt us to start getting short and selling on any rallies towards 1.3050 (we may not even get to see that level though so our preference is to scale into the position gradually above 1.3000). For one thing, the 4-week uptrend channel resistance we’ve been monitoring on the hourly chart now comes in at 1.3080, and is backed up by a significant former high at 1.3095 (seen on 10 May). The added information the daily chart can give us is that at 1.3125 there is also the 38.2% fibonacci retracement of the entire sell-off from 1.5145 to 1.1876 which should present a major hurdle for this relief rally to overcome.

We still expect some buyers to lie around 1.2905 (100-day moving average), 1.2871 (yesterday’s low), 1.2780 (a former pivot), and 1.2683 (last Wednesday’s low).

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