| USD JPY 04-02-10 |
USDJPY
After a false break lower through the 1-week uptrend yesterday, USDJPY quickly took out stops through 90.35 (38.2% fibonacci retracement of the rally from 84.83 to 93.77) to touch 90.09. However, despite the short term technical picture favouring a resumption of the downtrend (as highlighted in yesterday’s report), the pair met strong buying interesting ahead of 90.00, eliciting a nice bounce back within the uptrend channel, attracting investors wrong-footed by the break to scramble back into their USDJPY longs.
The momentum into the afternoon finally punched through the 91.00 resistance that had represented a major cap over the past week, and currently the pair is sitting just below the upper bound of this 4-week downtrend coming in around 91.15. From here we really need to see a confirmed break (i.e. daily close) above this 4 week downtrend to open up a challenge on the more significant 2.5 year downtrend coming in around 92.00, a development that would firmly shift the bias in favour of a major trend reversal.
After a false break lower through the 1-week uptrend yesterday, USDJPY quickly took out stops through 90.35 (38.2% fibonacci retracement of the rally from 84.83 to 93.77) to touch 90.09. However, despite the short term technical picture favouring a resumption of the downtrend (as highlighted in yesterday’s report), the pair met strong buying interesting ahead of 90.00, eliciting a nice bounce back within the uptrend channel, attracting investors wrong-footed by the break to scramble back into their USDJPY longs.
The momentum into the afternoon finally punched through the 91.00 resistance that had represented a major cap over the past week, and currently the pair is sitting just below the upper bound of this 4-week downtrend coming in around 91.15. From here we really need to see a confirmed break (i.e. daily close) above this 4 week downtrend to open up a challenge on the more significant 2.5 year downtrend coming in around 92.00, a development that would firmly shift the bias in favour of a major trend reversal.
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