| USD CHF 04-02-10 |
USDCHF
As we discussed yesterday, the dip lower through the 3 week uptrend line left USDCHF vulnerable to correction lower, and after a quick retest of the back side of the trendline in early Europen trading, the pair dropped rapidly from 1.0570 levels down to 1.0500 support, but much like USDJPY, the pair found bids around the lows and by this morning has staged a strong recovery back above 1.0600.
Obviously with the gravity of upcoming risk events (non-farm payrolls tomorrow), it’s a precarious job to be making a call on the long term direction on the pair from here, but in the short term the technicals strongly favour a correction lower. We are currently trading around the major 1.0610 resistance level, with the major 14-month downtrend resistance now coming in at 1.0630, just ahead of the 1.0643 post-intervention highs.
That’s in addition to the 14-day RSI already toeing the line of overbought territory at 69 and our stochastic oscillator crossover around the 90 level suggesting a correction from overbought levels is imminent. As such, this one’s sell in our view, but keeping risk light and positions nimble will be key in case the US data makes for a USD surge into the end of the week.
As we discussed yesterday, the dip lower through the 3 week uptrend line left USDCHF vulnerable to correction lower, and after a quick retest of the back side of the trendline in early Europen trading, the pair dropped rapidly from 1.0570 levels down to 1.0500 support, but much like USDJPY, the pair found bids around the lows and by this morning has staged a strong recovery back above 1.0600.
Obviously with the gravity of upcoming risk events (non-farm payrolls tomorrow), it’s a precarious job to be making a call on the long term direction on the pair from here, but in the short term the technicals strongly favour a correction lower. We are currently trading around the major 1.0610 resistance level, with the major 14-month downtrend resistance now coming in at 1.0630, just ahead of the 1.0643 post-intervention highs.
That’s in addition to the 14-day RSI already toeing the line of overbought territory at 69 and our stochastic oscillator crossover around the 90 level suggesting a correction from overbought levels is imminent. As such, this one’s sell in our view, but keeping risk light and positions nimble will be key in case the US data makes for a USD surge into the end of the week.
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