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USDCHF
What a choppy mess! Although USDCHF may have looked somewhat directionless and rangebound in the past few days, the overwhelming message from the rest of the currency space appears to be “sell the dollar”, so this may be a pair worth watching for a downside break before it actually takes place.
The downside level to watch will be yesterday’s low 1.0348, which has only weak former downtrend support below it at 1.0305. Below there we start looking back to levels not seen since the beginning of the year; namely the 19 Jan low 1.0229 and the 11 Jan low 1.0131.
Selling interest is expected to materialize around 1.0415 (today’s high) and then again at yesterday’s peak of 1.0476.
USDCHF
What a choppy mess! Although USDCHF may have looked somewhat directionless and rangebound in the past few days, the overwhelming message from the rest of the currency space appears to be “sell the dollar”, so this may be a pair worth watching for a downside break before it actually takes place.
The downside level to watch will be yesterday’s low 1.0348, which has only weak former downtrend support below it at 1.0305. Below there we start looking back to levels not seen since the beginning of the year; namely the 19 Jan low 1.0229 and the 11 Jan low 1.0131.
Selling interest is expected to materialize around 1.0415 (today’s high) and then again at yesterday’s peak of 1.0476.
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USDJPY
USDJPY still looks extremely vulnerable after its dip to new 2010 lows of 85.98, and yesterday’s attempted recovery only got as far as 86.89 before the bears got the better of it once more.
85.98 looks set to be challenged again this morning, and should we take a tumble below there then the prospects look grim for anyone still clinging to longs; downtrend channel support at 85.50 is the only demand anticipated ahead of the November 2009 low of 84.83.
Rallies are likely to face strong resistance towards 86.89 (yesterday’s high), and in the unlikely event the bulls can push above there, ample selling interest should precipitate around 87.50-60 (2-month downtrend resistance and back side of former 1-week uptrend) with 88.00 also just behind.
USDJPY
USDJPY still looks extremely vulnerable after its dip to new 2010 lows of 85.98, and yesterday’s attempted recovery only got as far as 86.89 before the bears got the better of it once more.
85.98 looks set to be challenged again this morning, and should we take a tumble below there then the prospects look grim for anyone still clinging to longs; downtrend channel support at 85.50 is the only demand anticipated ahead of the November 2009 low of 84.83.
Rallies are likely to face strong resistance towards 86.89 (yesterday’s high), and in the unlikely event the bulls can push above there, ample selling interest should precipitate around 87.50-60 (2-month downtrend resistance and back side of former 1-week uptrend) with 88.00 also just behind.
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EURUSD
Another burst higher for EURUSD has pushed us to new highs of 1.3195 and it’s so far so good for the bullish triangle pattern we have been engaged in for the past week. We are still sitting tight for an eventual target of 1.3290, but for those who missed the entry point back down around 1.2950 there is now a second opportunity to get long materializing here.
We see a potential bullish flag pattern on the hourly chart which would become activated on a break above 1.3185 and which would look to target 1.3300 –virtually the same as our triangle target. The only resistance levels left before either target are 1.3213 and 1.3254 (14 and 13 May highs respectively); so risk-reward definitely looks favourable for these bullish trades.
Should the bears re-emerge, they will likely find good bidders waiting eagerly to get long around 1.3106 former pivot level, not to mention at the 5-week uptrend channel support at 1.3055.
EURUSD
Another burst higher for EURUSD has pushed us to new highs of 1.3195 and it’s so far so good for the bullish triangle pattern we have been engaged in for the past week. We are still sitting tight for an eventual target of 1.3290, but for those who missed the entry point back down around 1.2950 there is now a second opportunity to get long materializing here.
We see a potential bullish flag pattern on the hourly chart which would become activated on a break above 1.3185 and which would look to target 1.3300 –virtually the same as our triangle target. The only resistance levels left before either target are 1.3213 and 1.3254 (14 and 13 May highs respectively); so risk-reward definitely looks favourable for these bullish trades.
Should the bears re-emerge, they will likely find good bidders waiting eagerly to get long around 1.3106 former pivot level, not to mention at the 5-week uptrend channel support at 1.3055.
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USDCHF
It looks like we have finally been given the break-out we talked about yesterday, in fact, as we write, USDCHF has broken upwards above its short-term downtrend which means game on for another move higher.
We now have to look for long entry levels a little higher up having missed our entry points the past 2 sessions, and the obvious choice would be the back side of the downtrend should we be lucky enough to get a re-test. That downtrend is now seen at 1.1600 so we’ll be buying on any dips down there and looking for an eventual move to 1.1700 (25 May high) and 1.1742 in extension (critical resistance).
The uptrend support now appears at 1.1515 (also coinciding with an old support level), with further bids expected around 1.1450 (the 20-21 May lows).
It looks like we have finally been given the break-out we talked about yesterday, in fact, as we write, USDCHF has broken upwards above its short-term downtrend which means game on for another move higher.
We now have to look for long entry levels a little higher up having missed our entry points the past 2 sessions, and the obvious choice would be the back side of the downtrend should we be lucky enough to get a re-test. That downtrend is now seen at 1.1600 so we’ll be buying on any dips down there and looking for an eventual move to 1.1700 (25 May high) and 1.1742 in extension (critical resistance).
The uptrend support now appears at 1.1515 (also coinciding with an old support level), with further bids expected around 1.1450 (the 20-21 May lows).
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GBPUSD
Choppy range-trading lives on in GBPUSD, but whilst 1.4400-10 support holds, we stick with a bullish bias. As discussed previously, last Thursday’s sell-off bounced emphatically off the back side of the former 1-month downtrend, so we look to buy on dips towards 1.4410 (with a stop at 1.4375) looking for a move back towards 1.4500.
Next supportbelow 1.4400 precipitates at 1.4385 (where the 2-week uptrend comes in), but beyond there is an ugly drop before buyers are expected to emerge once more at 1.4240 –as such we certainly won’t be holding onto any longs below that 1.4375 stop.
Resistance still eyed at 1.4520 and 1.4610 (28 May high), then the upper edge of the uptrend channel just beyond at 1.4685.
Choppy range-trading lives on in GBPUSD, but whilst 1.4400-10 support holds, we stick with a bullish bias. As discussed previously, last Thursday’s sell-off bounced emphatically off the back side of the former 1-month downtrend, so we look to buy on dips towards 1.4410 (with a stop at 1.4375) looking for a move back towards 1.4500.
Next supportbelow 1.4400 precipitates at 1.4385 (where the 2-week uptrend comes in), but beyond there is an ugly drop before buyers are expected to emerge once more at 1.4240 –as such we certainly won’t be holding onto any longs below that 1.4375 stop.
Resistance still eyed at 1.4520 and 1.4610 (28 May high), then the upper edge of the uptrend channel just beyond at 1.4685.
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