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GBPUSD
GBPUSD’s impressive march higher continues, and this morning looks to be within a stone’s throw of threatening the 17 Feb high 1.5816. Dips towards the lower edge of the 2-month uptrend channel have been few and far between which has ensured the market is still clawing to get in on this trade but long positioning is still by no means crowded.
We now see an even steeper 2-week downtrend in play within the 2-month uptrend, and the upper edge of that channel is now eyed at 1.5835; the combination of that and the 1.5816 resistance may be enough to rebut the rally on the first attempt, so we would be alert to dips back towards 1.5650 to go long smalls (at this late stage in the game we are as enthusiastic to go in with a full-sized position).
Good support is anticipated around the 200-day moving average at 1.5539 and 1.5525 pivot, then again at 1.5443 (27 Jul low). Should the move proceed higher through 1.5816 and 1.5835, then all focus will be on a triumphant return to 1.6000.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD’s impressive march higher continues, and this morning looks to be within a stone’s throw of threatening the 17 Feb high 1.5816. Dips towards the lower edge of the 2-month uptrend channel have been few and far between which has ensured the market is still clawing to get in on this trade but long positioning is still by no means crowded.
We now see an even steeper 2-week downtrend in play within the 2-month uptrend, and the upper edge of that channel is now eyed at 1.5835; the combination of that and the 1.5816 resistance may be enough to rebut the rally on the first attempt, so we would be alert to dips back towards 1.5650 to go long smalls (at this late stage in the game we are as enthusiastic to go in with a full-sized position).
Good support is anticipated around the 200-day moving average at 1.5539 and 1.5525 pivot, then again at 1.5443 (27 Jul low). Should the move proceed higher through 1.5816 and 1.5835, then all focus will be on a triumphant return to 1.6000.
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USDCHF
This has been a very funny one to trade from a technical standpoint; after breaking through its massively significant 1.0400 support in the latter part of last week, one would have thought that the weak US GDP on Friday and new lows in USDJPY would have been the perfect ingredients to spark another push lower in USDCHF. But the pair held firm –and is now above 1.0400 and climbing…
If anything, the price action is still extremely range-bound and directionless so at these levels it seems that the topside will present the route of least friction, even if our core view if for a move lower in the medium term.
Selling interest is expected to materialize around 1.0465 and 1.0560 former supports, followed by significant resistance at 1.0647 (13 Jul & 27 Jul highs and 200-day moving average). On the downside, Friday’s low at 1.0362 is the last level before former downtrend support at 1.0330.
USDCHF
This has been a very funny one to trade from a technical standpoint; after breaking through its massively significant 1.0400 support in the latter part of last week, one would have thought that the weak US GDP on Friday and new lows in USDJPY would have been the perfect ingredients to spark another push lower in USDCHF. But the pair held firm –and is now above 1.0400 and climbing…
If anything, the price action is still extremely range-bound and directionless so at these levels it seems that the topside will present the route of least friction, even if our core view if for a move lower in the medium term.
Selling interest is expected to materialize around 1.0465 and 1.0560 former supports, followed by significant resistance at 1.0647 (13 Jul & 27 Jul highs and 200-day moving average). On the downside, Friday’s low at 1.0362 is the last level before former downtrend support at 1.0330.
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USDJPY
Weaker than expected US GDP managed to pierce the important 86.25 support level on Friday, precipitating a new 2010 low of 85.98; rather than prompting an all-out collapse however, the pair has since managed to claw back some of these losses, and is now back above 86.75 resistance.
Continued rallies are nevertheless likely to face strong resistance towards the back side of the former 1-week uptrend (now seen at 87.45), and beyond there the 2-month downtrend has now crept down to 87.60 with 88.00 also just behind.
The downside still seems the far more vulnerable direction from here after that dip below 86.00, and should we take another tumble below there then the prospects look grim for anyone still clinging to longs; downtrend channel support at 85.55 is the only demand anticipated ahead of the November 2009 low of 84.83.
USDJPY
Weaker than expected US GDP managed to pierce the important 86.25 support level on Friday, precipitating a new 2010 low of 85.98; rather than prompting an all-out collapse however, the pair has since managed to claw back some of these losses, and is now back above 86.75 resistance.
Continued rallies are nevertheless likely to face strong resistance towards the back side of the former 1-week uptrend (now seen at 87.45), and beyond there the 2-month downtrend has now crept down to 87.60 with 88.00 also just behind.
The downside still seems the far more vulnerable direction from here after that dip below 86.00, and should we take another tumble below there then the prospects look grim for anyone still clinging to longs; downtrend channel support at 85.55 is the only demand anticipated ahead of the November 2009 low of 84.83.
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EURUSD
The gradual grind higher continues for EURUSD; but it has been slow progress for the bulls, and there has been no new high to report since Thursday’s peak of 1.3106. We are still playing the bullish break out of a symmetrical triangle pattern on the hourly chart, and based on the projected path of that triangle we are expecting a move to 1.3290 in the coming days.
However the key to this pattern staying alive will be the fidelity of the 1-month uptrend (currently coming in around 1.3020), and therefore we trail our stop just below that uptrend line to ensure we lock in some profits should risk appetite turn sour. Resistance is expected to remain in play around 1.3106, but beyond there we have a very clear path up to next levels 1.3213 and 1.3254 (14 and 13 May highs respectively).
Should the 1-month uptrend give way, then the levels eyed beyond are the 100-day moving average 1.2843, followed by 1.2793 (23 Jul low), 1.2733 (21 Jul low), 1.2683 (14 Jul low) and 1.2522 (13 Jul low).
EURUSD
The gradual grind higher continues for EURUSD; but it has been slow progress for the bulls, and there has been no new high to report since Thursday’s peak of 1.3106. We are still playing the bullish break out of a symmetrical triangle pattern on the hourly chart, and based on the projected path of that triangle we are expecting a move to 1.3290 in the coming days.
However the key to this pattern staying alive will be the fidelity of the 1-month uptrend (currently coming in around 1.3020), and therefore we trail our stop just below that uptrend line to ensure we lock in some profits should risk appetite turn sour. Resistance is expected to remain in play around 1.3106, but beyond there we have a very clear path up to next levels 1.3213 and 1.3254 (14 and 13 May highs respectively).
Should the 1-month uptrend give way, then the levels eyed beyond are the 100-day moving average 1.2843, followed by 1.2793 (23 Jul low), 1.2733 (21 Jul low), 1.2683 (14 Jul low) and 1.2522 (13 Jul low).
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USDCHF
The bears have jumped all over this pair since the break of the 1-week uptrend yesterday morning, and major support at 1.0400 is being mauled to pieces as we speak.
We now see a possible bearish flag pattern on the hourly chart, and therefore wait to go short on a confirmed break below 1.0390 with a proposed target of 1.0230. This target is identical to the low seen on the 19 Jan so there is some argument for being a little less ambitious than the flag target would normally suggest, so we propose a 1.0250 take profit on the downside.
There are still some potential stumbling blocks to overcome along the way; the first of those being the 25 Jan low 1.0368 and the back side of a former downtrend at 1.0350.
Selling interest is expected to materialize around 1.0450 and 1.0560 former supports, followed by significant at 1.0647 (13 Jul & 27 Jul highs and 200-day moving average).
USDCHF
The bears have jumped all over this pair since the break of the 1-week uptrend yesterday morning, and major support at 1.0400 is being mauled to pieces as we speak.
We now see a possible bearish flag pattern on the hourly chart, and therefore wait to go short on a confirmed break below 1.0390 with a proposed target of 1.0230. This target is identical to the low seen on the 19 Jan so there is some argument for being a little less ambitious than the flag target would normally suggest, so we propose a 1.0250 take profit on the downside.
There are still some potential stumbling blocks to overcome along the way; the first of those being the 25 Jan low 1.0368 and the back side of a former downtrend at 1.0350.
Selling interest is expected to materialize around 1.0450 and 1.0560 former supports, followed by significant at 1.0647 (13 Jul & 27 Jul highs and 200-day moving average).
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GBPUSD
Much like EURUSD, GBPUSD has managed to reach new highs at 1.5656; but the progress since yesterday has been modest to say the least, and market participation later on is likely to hinge on the outcome of this afternoon’s US GDP release.
As previously discussed, we feel that the UK GDP figures last Friday were a game changer, and from here we would relish any dips towards the lower edge of the current uptrend channel now seen at 1.5420 to get long. The way things have gone so far, we may not even get a correction that deep as good support is also anticipated around the 200-day moving average at 1.5541, 1.5525 pivot, then again at 1.5443 (27 Jul low).
Really there is not much standing in the way of an assault on the 17 Feb high 1.5816 in the coming days, and beyond there we open up the possibility of re-testing the top of the 8-week uptrend channel (currently at 1.5980) before the psychologically significant 1.6000.
GBPUSD
Much like EURUSD, GBPUSD has managed to reach new highs at 1.5656; but the progress since yesterday has been modest to say the least, and market participation later on is likely to hinge on the outcome of this afternoon’s US GDP release.
As previously discussed, we feel that the UK GDP figures last Friday were a game changer, and from here we would relish any dips towards the lower edge of the current uptrend channel now seen at 1.5420 to get long. The way things have gone so far, we may not even get a correction that deep as good support is also anticipated around the 200-day moving average at 1.5541, 1.5525 pivot, then again at 1.5443 (27 Jul low).
Really there is not much standing in the way of an assault on the 17 Feb high 1.5816 in the coming days, and beyond there we open up the possibility of re-testing the top of the 8-week uptrend channel (currently at 1.5980) before the psychologically significant 1.6000.
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USDJPY
Ongoing bearish momentum has quickly managed to negate the 1-week uptrend and accompanying bullish scenarios we discussed earlier in the week, and this morning the pair is looking to threaten the critical 86.25 downside support.
Should that support give way then the prospects look grim for anyone still clinging to longs; downtrend channel resistance at 85.60 is the only support anticipated ahead of the November 2009 low of 84.83; and the notable lack of interventionist rhetoric from the BoJ is also likely to cast doubts. As such, we’d actually look to get short on an hourly close through 86.25, and target 85.00 as a first target.
Rallies are likely to face resistance back towards the back side of the 1-week uptrend (now seen at 87.30, and beyond there the 8-week downtrend has now crept down to 87.75 with 88.00 also just behind.
USDJPY
Ongoing bearish momentum has quickly managed to negate the 1-week uptrend and accompanying bullish scenarios we discussed earlier in the week, and this morning the pair is looking to threaten the critical 86.25 downside support.
Should that support give way then the prospects look grim for anyone still clinging to longs; downtrend channel resistance at 85.60 is the only support anticipated ahead of the November 2009 low of 84.83; and the notable lack of interventionist rhetoric from the BoJ is also likely to cast doubts. As such, we’d actually look to get short on an hourly close through 86.25, and target 85.00 as a first target.
Rallies are likely to face resistance back towards the back side of the 1-week uptrend (now seen at 87.30, and beyond there the 8-week downtrend has now crept down to 87.75 with 88.00 also just behind.
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EURUSD
The gradual grind higher continues for EURUSD; after popping above 1.3046 resistance yesterday the pair had a couple of quick peeks above 1.3100, but choppy and sideways price action is likely to dominate ahead of today’s Eurozone unemployment reading and US GDP this afternoon. We are still playing the bullish break out of a symmetrical triangle pattern on the hourly chart, and based on the projected path of that triangle we are expecting a move to 1.3290 in the coming days.
Resistance is expected to remain in play around yesterday’s highs of 1.3106, but beyond there we have a very clear path up to next levels 1.3213 and 1.3254 (14 and 13 May highs respectively).
1-month uptrend support is eyed at 1.2980, then the 100-day moving average 1.2849, followed by 1.2793 (23 Jul low), 1.2733 (21 Jul low), 1.2683 (14 Jul low) and 1.2522 (13 Jul low).
EURUSD
The gradual grind higher continues for EURUSD; after popping above 1.3046 resistance yesterday the pair had a couple of quick peeks above 1.3100, but choppy and sideways price action is likely to dominate ahead of today’s Eurozone unemployment reading and US GDP this afternoon. We are still playing the bullish break out of a symmetrical triangle pattern on the hourly chart, and based on the projected path of that triangle we are expecting a move to 1.3290 in the coming days.
Resistance is expected to remain in play around yesterday’s highs of 1.3106, but beyond there we have a very clear path up to next levels 1.3213 and 1.3254 (14 and 13 May highs respectively).
1-month uptrend support is eyed at 1.2980, then the 100-day moving average 1.2849, followed by 1.2793 (23 Jul low), 1.2733 (21 Jul low), 1.2683 (14 Jul low) and 1.2522 (13 Jul low).
Sign up for a free demo account to follow the analysis and trade.
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