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USDCHF
The bias on USDCHF in the short-term is bullish, but barely! The potential bullish flag pattern we noted on the hourly chart yesterday did not even activate (due to the failure to break above 1.0560) and now the slump back towards 1.0460 seems to have written off the possibility of this pattern being valid later on.
Support should be readily forthcoming around 1.0450, with added buying interest below at 1.0425 (where the back side of the former downtrend now comes in).
For now, 1.0565 is growing into a major ceiling of resistance limiting the upside, but should we manage to break above there, next levels expected at the 14 Jul highs 1.0618 and the 200-day moving average at 1.0641.
USDCHF
The bias on USDCHF in the short-term is bullish, but barely! The potential bullish flag pattern we noted on the hourly chart yesterday did not even activate (due to the failure to break above 1.0560) and now the slump back towards 1.0460 seems to have written off the possibility of this pattern being valid later on.
Support should be readily forthcoming around 1.0450, with added buying interest below at 1.0425 (where the back side of the former downtrend now comes in).
For now, 1.0565 is growing into a major ceiling of resistance limiting the upside, but should we manage to break above there, next levels expected at the 14 Jul highs 1.0618 and the 200-day moving average at 1.0641.
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GBPUSD
GBPUSD’s revival has continued in the past 24 hours, with the 15 Jul high of 1.5473 becoming the latest technical landmark to be conquered by the bulls as the pair has marched on to the heady heights of 1.5530 not seen since February.
For now, the quick peek above 1.5525 (15 Apr high) has only been brief, and indeed the pair has tumbled rather ungracefully back down to 1.5470 levels this morning. But we feel that the UK GDP figures last Friday were a game changer, and from here we would relish any dips towards the lower edge of the current uptrend channel (now seen at 1.5315) to get long. The 1.5350 pivot does come in just ahead of the trendline today so we set a limit order around 1.5360 with a stop through 1.5300 (the back side of last week’s downtrend).
For now we feel the cluttered net of technical resistance above will cap this leg of the rally between 1.5525-75; this zone contains not only the 15 April high as previously discussed, but also the 200-day moving average at 1.5554 and 23 Feb high 1.5575. Should we be wrong and the pair instead capitulate through uptrend support, next levels eyed below are at 1.5125 (last Wednesday’s low), followed by 1.5080.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD’s revival has continued in the past 24 hours, with the 15 Jul high of 1.5473 becoming the latest technical landmark to be conquered by the bulls as the pair has marched on to the heady heights of 1.5530 not seen since February.
For now, the quick peek above 1.5525 (15 Apr high) has only been brief, and indeed the pair has tumbled rather ungracefully back down to 1.5470 levels this morning. But we feel that the UK GDP figures last Friday were a game changer, and from here we would relish any dips towards the lower edge of the current uptrend channel (now seen at 1.5315) to get long. The 1.5350 pivot does come in just ahead of the trendline today so we set a limit order around 1.5360 with a stop through 1.5300 (the back side of last week’s downtrend).
For now we feel the cluttered net of technical resistance above will cap this leg of the rally between 1.5525-75; this zone contains not only the 15 April high as previously discussed, but also the 200-day moving average at 1.5554 and 23 Feb high 1.5575. Should we be wrong and the pair instead capitulate through uptrend support, next levels eyed below are at 1.5125 (last Wednesday’s low), followed by 1.5080.
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USDJPY
Although USDJPY and JPY-crosses have been broadly supported since the release of the bank stress tests and the much better than expected US housing data yesterday, we remain locked in the same range between 86.25 –87.75.
Our bias is certainly for USDJPY to go higher in the medium term so focus on the price action approaching the range ceiling at 87.75, and for now there is still a possibility that a break above there could signal a double bottom pattern on the hourly chart. Should this be the case, we would be looking at a target above at 88.85. Before that destination, sellers are expected to step in around 88.00 (former pivot), 89.15 (12 Jul high) and 89.50 (28-29 Jun high).
Obviously, until the break-out higher materializes we should still respect the range-trading environment that prevails, where 82.80 currently provides an intra range support and the range floor around 86.25 still looks robust having caught two previous sell-offs on 16 & 22 Jul.
USDJPY
Although USDJPY and JPY-crosses have been broadly supported since the release of the bank stress tests and the much better than expected US housing data yesterday, we remain locked in the same range between 86.25 –87.75.
Our bias is certainly for USDJPY to go higher in the medium term so focus on the price action approaching the range ceiling at 87.75, and for now there is still a possibility that a break above there could signal a double bottom pattern on the hourly chart. Should this be the case, we would be looking at a target above at 88.85. Before that destination, sellers are expected to step in around 88.00 (former pivot), 89.15 (12 Jul high) and 89.50 (28-29 Jun high).
Obviously, until the break-out higher materializes we should still respect the range-trading environment that prevails, where 82.80 currently provides an intra range support and the range floor around 86.25 still looks robust having caught two previous sell-offs on 16 & 22 Jul.
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EURUSD
The symmetrical triangle pattern we highlighted in yesterday’s report now appears to have become activated by the break above 1.2950, so we have gone long and now set our sights on a target above at 1.3290. The market is being somewhat choppy and directionless this morning, so should we pare back some gains and get a re-test of the 1.2950 break-out area we feel it would be a great opportunity to add to longs (or for those who missed the initial break-out to jump onboard).
Next resistance is expected to exert its effect at 1.3028 (20 Jul high) and 1.3093 (10 May high) with weak resistance also anticipated at 1.3213 and 1.3254 (14 and 13 May highs respectively).
With the 1-month uptrend very much still in play we expect buyers to step in ahead of trendline support at 1.2965 with more technical levels seen at 1.2793 (Friday’s low), 1.2733 (21 Jul low), 1.2683 (14 Jul low) and 1.2522 (13 Jul low).
EURUSD
The symmetrical triangle pattern we highlighted in yesterday’s report now appears to have become activated by the break above 1.2950, so we have gone long and now set our sights on a target above at 1.3290. The market is being somewhat choppy and directionless this morning, so should we pare back some gains and get a re-test of the 1.2950 break-out area we feel it would be a great opportunity to add to longs (or for those who missed the initial break-out to jump onboard).
Next resistance is expected to exert its effect at 1.3028 (20 Jul high) and 1.3093 (10 May high) with weak resistance also anticipated at 1.3213 and 1.3254 (14 and 13 May highs respectively).
With the 1-month uptrend very much still in play we expect buyers to step in ahead of trendline support at 1.2965 with more technical levels seen at 1.2793 (Friday’s low), 1.2733 (21 Jul low), 1.2683 (14 Jul low) and 1.2522 (13 Jul low).
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USDCHF
Finally, someone told the bulls about the break of the 3-week downtrend channel and we managed to get a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern on the daily chart to finish the week; it only took about 3 days... The decisive burst higher on Friday afternoon hit a peak of 1.0564 but progress has been halted by resistance coinciding with the 19 Jul highs, so for now the pair is now consolidating above 1.0500.
We see a potential bullish flag pattern on the hourly chart that suggests a break above 1.0560 should be taken as the signal to go long, with a target on the topside around 1.0715; however we think buying on a dip to 1.0500 (the lower edge of the flag) also represents decent value with 1.0450 likely to offer some protection below.
Only resistance levels above to be wary of are the 14 Jul highs at 1.0618 and the 200-day moving average at 1.0640.
USDCHF
Finally, someone told the bulls about the break of the 3-week downtrend channel and we managed to get a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern on the daily chart to finish the week; it only took about 3 days... The decisive burst higher on Friday afternoon hit a peak of 1.0564 but progress has been halted by resistance coinciding with the 19 Jul highs, so for now the pair is now consolidating above 1.0500.
We see a potential bullish flag pattern on the hourly chart that suggests a break above 1.0560 should be taken as the signal to go long, with a target on the topside around 1.0715; however we think buying on a dip to 1.0500 (the lower edge of the flag) also represents decent value with 1.0450 likely to offer some protection below.
Only resistance levels above to be wary of are the 14 Jul highs at 1.0618 and the 200-day moving average at 1.0640.
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GBPUSD
After the false break of the 6-week uptrend last week GBPUSD has bounced emphatically higher, and impressive UK GDP figures on Friday has catalysed the rally further to highs of 1.5501.
In doing so, the pair has now surpassed the 15 Jul highs at 1.5472 and is now expected to make a move on the more significant 1.5525 (15 Apr high). Above there lies yet more technical resistance (namely the 200-day moving average 1.5558 and 23 Feb high 1.5575) which should stall the rally on the first visit, but beyond there the skies are clear for a run on 1.6000.
Nearest support is back down around 1.5350 pivot level, with the lower edge of the 6-week uptrend now coming in below at 1.5280. Should the trend break lower once more then first stop on the downside will be 1.5125 (last Wednesday’s low), followed by 1.5080.
GBPUSD
After the false break of the 6-week uptrend last week GBPUSD has bounced emphatically higher, and impressive UK GDP figures on Friday has catalysed the rally further to highs of 1.5501.
In doing so, the pair has now surpassed the 15 Jul highs at 1.5472 and is now expected to make a move on the more significant 1.5525 (15 Apr high). Above there lies yet more technical resistance (namely the 200-day moving average 1.5558 and 23 Feb high 1.5575) which should stall the rally on the first visit, but beyond there the skies are clear for a run on 1.6000.
Nearest support is back down around 1.5350 pivot level, with the lower edge of the 6-week uptrend now coming in below at 1.5280. Should the trend break lower once more then first stop on the downside will be 1.5125 (last Wednesday’s low), followed by 1.5080.
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USDJPY
The bearish flag pattern we had been tracking last week has now decisively been dead and buried by the move back above 87.50, and if anything we look to be carving out a range between 86.25 –87.75.
At current levels towards the upper end of the range, the most attractive strategy is to sell some and await a return to 86.50ish levels, but ensuring we keep a tight stop on the topside to keep the risk/reward ratio manageable.
There is a possibility that from here, a break above that range ceiling (87.75) could indicate a double bottom chart pattern has been activated, and if so, we should be getting long there and aiming for a target above of 88.85.Sellers are expected to step in around 88.00 (former pivot), 89.15 (12 Jul high) and 89.50 (28-29 Jun high).
USDJPY
The bearish flag pattern we had been tracking last week has now decisively been dead and buried by the move back above 87.50, and if anything we look to be carving out a range between 86.25 –87.75.
At current levels towards the upper end of the range, the most attractive strategy is to sell some and await a return to 86.50ish levels, but ensuring we keep a tight stop on the topside to keep the risk/reward ratio manageable.
There is a possibility that from here, a break above that range ceiling (87.75) could indicate a double bottom chart pattern has been activated, and if so, we should be getting long there and aiming for a target above of 88.85.Sellers are expected to step in around 88.00 (former pivot), 89.15 (12 Jul high) and 89.50 (28-29 Jun high).
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EURUSD
Well, the European stress tests were just as underwhelming as expected, so for now EURUSD’s short-term uptrend remains intact and the markets look pretty directionless this Monday morning. Our gut instinct is that the medium-term direction for this pair will be lower, but in the short-term we would be willing to play this one either way depending on the outcome of a potential symmetrical triangle pattern now visible on the hourly chart.
The lower edge of the triangle coincides with the short-term uptrend line, so a break below that support (currently 1.2825) would be the signal to go short with a target below around 1.2480. Given that target is some distance away, supports on the downside are a potential hazard at 1.2793 (Friday’s low),1.2733 (21 Jul low), 1.2683 (14 Jul low) and 1.2522 (13 Jul low).
Should the bullish triangle scenario play out instead then we need a break above 1.2950 to trigger long entry, and eye a target above at 1.3300. Next resistance is expected at the 100-day moving average 1.2874, 1.3028 (20 Jul high) and 1.3093 (10 May high).
EURUSD
Well, the European stress tests were just as underwhelming as expected, so for now EURUSD’s short-term uptrend remains intact and the markets look pretty directionless this Monday morning. Our gut instinct is that the medium-term direction for this pair will be lower, but in the short-term we would be willing to play this one either way depending on the outcome of a potential symmetrical triangle pattern now visible on the hourly chart.
The lower edge of the triangle coincides with the short-term uptrend line, so a break below that support (currently 1.2825) would be the signal to go short with a target below around 1.2480. Given that target is some distance away, supports on the downside are a potential hazard at 1.2793 (Friday’s low),1.2733 (21 Jul low), 1.2683 (14 Jul low) and 1.2522 (13 Jul low).
Should the bullish triangle scenario play out instead then we need a break above 1.2950 to trigger long entry, and eye a target above at 1.3300. Next resistance is expected at the 100-day moving average 1.2874, 1.3028 (20 Jul high) and 1.3093 (10 May high).
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