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A very simple picture on USD CHF right now with the very last hopes of an uptrend hanging on to support and the 3 week uptrend at 1.0237 . A break below 1.0237 targets a revisit to the low at 1.0186. The 4 day downtrend channel and resistance at 1.0326 will likely pull shorts into the pair at that level so there is some decent 90 pip range trading to be had here. 
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We spoke a couple of days ago about the symmetrical triangle on USD JPY and over the last 48 hours it has played out with amazing precision, no doubt bring some day traders back into the action of what was startign to become a rather boring picture. The pair has found good support at the lower downtrend channel of the entire 6 month down move around the 88.23 level but a break lower would be targetting the 14 year low of 87.07. Intraday shorts may be expected at 89.17 on the corner of the triangle and mid channel downtrend. 
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The head and shoulders is now completely negated as the pair rallies this morning to the resistance at 1.4786. There is once again significant RSI divergence on the 4 hour chart at this level (as we had on the first visit to this resistance zone) so a brief pause can be expected but we have to face the fact that a break above here targets 1.4845 and thereafter the major resistance at 1.4876. The 10 month uptrend now comes in at around 1.4570 so expect any weakness to be met by fresh demand at those levels. Support before that at 1.4684 and 1.4615. 
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For those of you who have been with us a while you may remember our discussion of a cup and handle breakout on AUD USD back down at 0.8237 in mid July when we put a medium term primary target on the pair of 0.9148. There have been many many day trades to be had around that position in the meantime and after the recent rise in AUD interest rates and Alcoa's suprise earnings last night, the pair is very close to that primary target, trading this morning around 0.9040. The pair has been forming a massive risng wedge throughout its entire upmove, the upper boundary of which "coincidentally", lies at....yeap, 0.9148. This wedge can obviously be broken to the upside and the pair could go on towards the full target of 1.02 but lets not get carried away. Yes, Alcoa's earning's were positive but let's not forget that it was due to a cost cutting exercise and revenue was down 33% on Q3 2008. Shocking really bearing in mind the world was at a virtual standstill at that time. I am not saying jump in front of the freight train right now, but take this information, remember it, and use when the first signs of weakness finally appear in the coming months.
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Cable has made a move this morning up to the 4 week downtrend channel that has been forming the second shoulder in the pair. There is a chance of some bravehearted shorts selling around current levels (1.0630 at time of writing) but with EUR USD and USD CHF having broken their respective short term trends, it is debatable as to whether a short right here is brave or foolhardy. Expect stops at 1.6080 on those positions that are taken. 
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A similar picture to EUR USD this morning with the short term trend broken overnight and in this case the inverse head and shoulders formation is undoubtedly ruined. There is support below at 1.0227/44 so there may be a small bounce for those longs still looking for the exit but any move higher faces resistance now at 1.0284 and 1.0324. 
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The pair continues to work its way into a triangle as it consolidates between 89.00 and 89.85. Not much to do here but play the range and obviously follow the breakout which ever side it comes on. 
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Stops have been triggered all over the place overnight as the pair breaks the short term downtrend and is now looking to break the head and shoulders formation. The 12 month bull trend players are taking firm control back from the bears but in doing so they have moved straight back into the major resistance zone around 1.4750 / 4850. Earnings season in the US kicks off tomorrow with Alcoa and this will likely give us a very clear indication of whether the risk appetite is warranted. 
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